The by-elections held in five legislative assembly constituencies across Gujarat, Punjab, Kerala, and West Bengal on June 19, 2025, are proving to be more than just regional contests. With vote counting underway as of June 23, early trends are signaling a significant shift in political dynamics, ahead of the 2026 General Elections.
These by-polls were necessitated by a mix of resignations and untimely deaths of sitting MLAs, and they’ve turned into a barometer for national and regional political sentiment. Let’s break down each contest, early results, and what they tell us about the evolving Indian political landscape.
🗳️ The Seats in Play
The five constituencies involved in these crucial by-elections were:
Visavadar (Gujarat)
Kadi – SC (Gujarat)
Ludhiana West (Punjab)
Nilambur (Kerala)
Kaliganj (West Bengal)
These seats span across the heartland and the coasts, each representing diverse voter expectations and party strengths.
🔴 Gujarat: BJP Retains One, AAP Scores Big Win
✅ Visavadar: AAP Shakes Up BJP Stronghold
In a surprise move, Gopal Italia of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won the Visavadar seat, defeating BJP’s Kirit Patel by over 17,000 votes. This is a landmark victory for AAP in Gujarat, a state long dominated by the BJP. Gopal Italia, a former student leader and prominent face of Gujarat’s anti-corruption movement, has been a rising figure in the party.
This win signals that AAP is successfully breaking through the political monopoly in Gujarat, especially in regions where discontent over local governance has been growing.
✅ Kadi (SC): BJP Holds Fort
The BJP, however, managed to retain the Kadi (Scheduled Caste reserved seat), where Rajendra Chavda defeated Congress’s Rameshbhai Chavda by a comfortable margin of over 39,000 votes. This win reflects the BJP’s continued stronghold over rural and reserved constituencies in Gujarat.
🟢 Punjab: AAP Retains Crucial Seat in Tight Contest
✅ Ludhiana West: AAP Pulls Through
In Ludhiana West, a key urban constituency, AAP’s Sanjeev Arora emerged victorious over Congress’s Bharat Bhushan Ashu. The battle was closely watched, particularly since it was held after the death of sitting AAP MLA Gurpreet Gogi. The win helps AAP solidify its base in Punjab following some political instability and criticism over governance issues in the state.
This result is significant not just for AAP but also for the opposition Congress, which had hoped to reclaim ground in a state it once ruled for decades.
🔵 Kerala: Congress Gains Ground
✅ Nilambur: UDF Takes the Lead
In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) scored an important win in Nilambur, where Aryadan Shoukath, son of former minister Aryadan Mohammed, defeated CPI(M)’s M. Swaraj. The Congress win is being interpreted as a resurgence in a state where the Left Democratic Front (LDF) has been in power for two consecutive terms.
This by-poll win boosts Congress’s morale, especially with the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections on the horizon.
🟡 West Bengal: TMC Fights to Hold Ground
❓ Kaliganj: A Close Contest
The Kaliganj seat in West Bengal has been one of the most competitive in this by-election round. While full results are still awaited at the time of writing, the contest remains neck-and-neck between the Trinamool Congress (TMC), Congress, and CPI(M). With the BJP also in the fray, the outcome could either affirm TMC’s dominance or signal the return of traditional Left-Congress alliances in Bengal politics.
This seat has strategic value, especially ahead of the 2026 West Bengal elections.
🧠 What These Results Tell Us
1. AAP’s Expansion Strategy Is Working
Winning seats in both Gujarat and Punjab indicates AAP’s increasing influence outside Delhi. The party has positioned itself as an anti-establishment alternative with a clean governance narrative. The victory in Gujarat, in particular, suggests that voters are willing to consider alternatives to the BJP when presented with credible leadership.
2. BJP Still Holds Strong Roots
Despite losing one seat in Gujarat, BJP’s win in Kadi shows that its organizational machinery and support base remain robust in traditional bastions. The party may need to reevaluate strategies to counter emerging players like AAP in urban and semi-urban constituencies.
3. Congress Shows Signs of Life
The Congress party’s victory in Kerala offers a glimmer of hope to a national party that has been struggling to assert itself. While still not a full-scale comeback, it shows that the Congress can still compete and win when local leadership is strong and well-connected.
4. Regional Politics Are Back in Focus
The tight race in West Bengal reinforces the growing importance of regional parties and local issues. With national parties facing mixed responses, state-based parties continue to thrive on identity politics, grassroots outreach, and performance at the local level.
🗂️ Voter Turnout & Polling Process
These by-elections witnessed healthy voter turnout across all five constituencies. The Election Commission of India ensured fair and transparent polling with the use of VVPAT-enabled EVMs, webcasting, and mobile polling stations in remote areas.
The strong turnout signals increasing political awareness and voter engagement, particularly in regions where development issues and governance have become election themes.
🔮 Implications for 2026 Elections
The results of these by-elections are early indicators of what we might see in the 2026 Assembly elections and potentially the next Lok Sabha polls. A few key takeaways:
AAP could become a national disruptor if it maintains this momentum.
Congress needs to build on state wins with better alliances and grassroots work.
BJP must adapt to new-age political challengers and regional sentiments.
Regional parties like TMC and CPI(M) will need to recalibrate strategies to hold their turf.
by Rohit Thakur | 23 jun 2025
[ 2025 by-election results, Gujarat Visavadar AAP win, Kadi BJP result, Ludhiana West AAP, Nilambur Congress, Kaliganj TMC, Assembly poll updates. ]
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