Can Ukraine’s ‘Spider’s Web’ Operation Cripple Russia’s Strategic Air Power?

Can Ukraine’s ‘Spider’s Web’ Operation Cripple Russia’s Strategic Air Power?

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Can Ukraine’s ‘Spider’s Web’ Operation Cripple Russia’s Strategic Air Power?

In one of the most ambitious and sophisticated drone offensives since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has struck deep into Russian territory, inflicting what analysts suggest could be a significant blow to Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. Dubbed Operation Spider’s Web, the multi-pronged attack utilized 117 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), targeting four separate air bases across Russia — including in Irkutsk, Murmansk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions.

The operation reached as far as 4,300 kilometers behind the front lines and reportedly damaged or destroyed 41 Russian aircraft, including a mix of Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers — aircraft integral to Russia’s long-range missile strike capabilities.

Satellite Confirmation and Analyst Assessment

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery captured by Capella Space and verified by Reuters has revealed the aftermath at the Belaya military air base in Siberia. Despite the grainy, monochrome nature of SAR images, multiple analysts have confirmed the destruction of key military assets. John Ford, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, identified the remains of at least two Tu-22M3 bombers and up to four Tu-95MS bombers based on SAR and drone footage.

Brady Africk, another open-source intelligence analyst, supported the claim, noting visible damage to several of these high-value bombers. “The aircraft targeted were a mix of Tu-22 and Tu-95 bombers, both of which Russia has used to launch strikes against Ukraine,” Africk explained.

Notably, decoy aircraft stationed at Belaya appeared to fail in deceiving the Ukrainian UAVs — a sign of increasing precision and intelligence-led targeting by Ukrainian forces.

The Scale and Impact of the Strike

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), which claimed responsibility for the operation, estimated the damage to be worth approximately $7 billion. They asserted that 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers were affected in the attack — a stunning claim that, while not independently verified, if true, suggests a substantial degradation of Russia’s aerial strike capabilities.

Drone footage from another site, the Olenya airfield in Murmansk, verified by Reuters, captured the burning wreckage of multiple Tu-95s, further indicating the extent of the strike's success. The attack marks the first confirmed use of such deep-penetration drone tactics across multiple strategic targets simultaneously.

Strategic Implications

While some experts argue that the destruction of these aircraft won’t immediately prevent Russia from continuing its missile campaigns, the losses could prove difficult to replace. Many of the aircraft types damaged or destroyed — particularly the Tu-95 — are no longer in production, making them irreplaceable in the short to medium term.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that such an attack would likely force Moscow to reassess and reconfigure its air defense posture. Russia may now need to stretch its defense systems over a wider area and invest more heavily in mobile defense units capable of responding to rapid UAV incursions.

Kremlin Reaction and Escalation Risk

In the wake of the attacks, the Kremlin has announced an official investigation and vowed retaliation. Dmitry Medvedev, a senior Russian security official, ominously promised that “retribution is inevitable.” The tone underscores the strategic and psychological significance of the operation — not only did it strike at the heart of Russia’s air power, but it also demonstrated Ukraine’s growing technological and tactical prowess.

While Ukraine’s claims surrounding Operation Spider’s Web are still under verification, independently confirmed images and footage already suggest the strike was one of the most effective airfield attacks of the war. If even a portion of the reported damage holds true, the implications for Russia’s ability to conduct long-range air operations could be substantial.

More broadly, the operation represents a turning point in the use of unmanned systems in modern warfare — combining intelligence, stealth, and long-range precision to strike at the very core of a nation’s military infrastructure.

As both sides adjust, the balance of air power in the conflict may be entering a new phase — one shaped as much by satellite imagery and drone footage as by missiles and jets.

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